Forecast: Sunny Summer for Business

It may not be time to break out the party hats, but there’s no doubt the economy has been improving – albeit quietly. In fact, important indicators such as disposable income and real retail and food service sales are back to pre-recession levels. But, there’s more. Consumer spending for February cranked up to the highest level in history, continuing a trend that began in 2009.

Economists and politicians can argue about the reasons for the rising tide, but consumer data suggest the sun is shining and it’s high time for business to make serious hay. The numbers below suggest checkbooks are open, and if past election years are an indicator they’ll likely stay that way through the fall.

• 8.2% – March U.S. unemployment, a 7.9% improvement over March 2011, but still at the highest level since 1984.
• 19.9 – Median duration of unemployment in weeks for March, down 7.9% since March 2011, but still abysmal by historical standards.
• +2.6% – February boost in disposable income over February 2011.
• +4.1% – February increase in consumer spending since February 2011.